Nashville Post Politics: Debunking The Debunking Of The Bradley Effect In Tennessee In 2006

Nashville Post Politics:

Debunking The Debunking Of The Bradley Effect In Tennessee In 2000

Via Sean Oxendine:

Now let’s look at the Tennessee Senate race a little closer, since this is often pointed to by Bradley effect skeptics as an example of a race where the Bradley effect didn’t occur. First, it is worth noting that Corker’s lead in the RCP average was certainly inflated by an outlying Mason-Dixon poll showing him up 12. If you remove that poll, you add two points to Ford’s polling average, and the break toward him is much less pronounced.

Regardless, let’s take a look at the white vote over time in Tennessee. SurveyUSA gives us a nice time-sequence of how whites said they planned to vote:

9/9-9/11: Corker 49%, Ford 44%

10/7-10/9: Corker 51%, Ford 44%

10/22-10/24: Corker 53%, Ford 42%

11/3-11/5: Corker 57%, Ford 41%

Final CNN Exit Poll: Corker 59%, Ford 40%

In other words, whites behaved exactly like we would expect them to behave with a Bradley Effect. It isn’t so much that Ford underperformed his polling among whites – though he did – it is that undecided whites steadily broke for Corker.

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