Princeton Election Consortium: The disappearing Bradley effect

Princeton Election Consortium (9/26/08)

The disappearing Bradley effect

A hot topic among polling nerds is the “Bradley effect,” which occurs when a non-white (usually black) candidate falls short of opinion polls on Election Day when he/she runs against a white candidate. For this reason it has been suggested that support for Obama might be overstated – a hidden bonus for John McCain. Now comes a large-scale empirical study (in preprint form) by Harvard political scientist Dan Hopkins. He finds that since the mid-1990s, the Bradley effect has disappeared. His paper is a must-read.

Many people believe that opinion polls overstate support for the black candidate, for instance due to latent racial bias that respondents are unaware of or will not report explicitly.

Huffington Post: Conservatives Race Bait the Economic Meltdown

John Ridley, Huffington Post (9/27/08)

Conservatives Race Bait the Economic Meltdown

As the US economy continues to crater, there’s plenty of blame to go around. Apparently, way around.

Over at Fox news, punditator Neil Cavuto claimed the current crisis could be put on financial institutions “lending to minorities and other risky folks.” While Neil is making this assertion there’s B-roll of Barack Obama playing for no other reason than to make sure the Fox audience knows exactly what minorities and risky people look like.

Click here to view this delightful video.

Meanwhile, over on her blog, conservative pin-up girl Michelle Malkin has got an idea at whom we should wag our collective fingers:

“Illegal immigration, crime-enabling banks, and open-borders Bush policies fueled the mortgage crisis. Half of the mortgages to Hispanics are subprime (the accursed species of loan to borrowers with the shadiest credit histories). A quarter of all those subprime loans are in default and foreclosure.”

Michelle, of course, does not substantiate or attribute those figures in any way, nor does she differentiate between legal and illegal Hispanic borrowers.